Scenarios For Distribution

Strategy is always determined in the context of scenarios, or alternative memories of the future. Considering the scenario options for the Building Industry in South Africa, the Strategic Forum agreed that the key Driving Forces of change (with the most potential impact) in the evolution of the Building Industry are:


  • the trends in Service Delivery (from a culture of consumer beware to a world-class service delivery culture based on keen competition for share of discretionary expenditure); and
  • the trends in Consumption (from consumers with very little power to super empowered individuals with multiple choices in a consumer centric culture); and
  • the trends in Differentiation (from an undifferentiated commoditised distribution system, to a highly competitive and differentiated system catering for all consumer needs from commodities to aspirational products).


The scenario matrix has four end-states, which translates into a three-dimensional scenario space, with scenario pathways linking the four end-states dynamically, to create developmental (process) scenarios.

Trends in distribution are inextricably responsive to, and influenced by, SERVICE DELIVERY, CONSUMPTION and DIFFERENTIATION of the Distribution industry. Increasing discretionary investment and sophisticated consumption needs requires SUPERIOR SERVICE DELIVERY. Consumer liberation and increased rivalry in distribution, leads to multiple choices and alternatives for consumers in a DIFFERENTIATED Distribution system, driven by the consequent demand for added-value building products and services and a CONSUMER CENTRIC culture.