Scenarios For South Africa

Strategy is always determined in the context of scenarios, or alternative memories of the future. Considering the scenario options for South Africa, the Strategic Forum agreed that the key Driving Forces of change (with the most potential impact) in the evolution of South Africa are:

    • the trends in political transformation (from a closed system to an open one);
    • the trends in economic transformation (again from a closed economic system to an open one, and
    • the trends in social transformation (in housing, health, education).


The scenario matrix has four end-states, which translates into a three-dimensional scenario space, with scenario pathways linking the four end-states dynamically, to create developmental (process) scenarios.


The future of South Africa depends on progress along the three Driving Forces of change of POLITICAL-, ECONOMIC-, and SOCIAL– TRANSFORMATION. The solution lies in an approach that inextricably links economic policy, social development and political transformation. The Ubuntu scenario requires an entrenched democracy, a reconciled Nation, united behind a common vision, an open and deregulated economic system, alleviation of poverty and high social delivery of housing, health and education.

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