Scenarios For The Commercial Property Market

Strategy is always determined in the context of scenarios, or alternative memories of the future. Considering the scenario options for the Building Industry in South Africa, the Strategic Forum agreed that the key Driving Forces of change (with the most potential impact) in the evolution of the Building Industry are:


  • the trends in Investment (from Property a poor investment to a preferred investment);
  • the trends in Investor Confidence (from no confidence and risk avoidance, to high confidence and risk taking); and
  • the trends in Property Delivery (by all the leading delivery Stakeholders).


The scenario matrix has four end-states, which translates into a three-dimensional scenario space, with scenario pathways linking the four end-states dynamically, to create developmental (process) scenarios.


Investment trends in Commercial Property are inextricably linked to INVESTMENT TRENDS, particularly related to the perceived value of Property as an attractive asset class; General INVESTOR CONFIDENCE , in the future of South Africa, and in the protection of property rights which determines the willingness to take risks and invest in property; and to PROPERTY DELIVERY related in particular to balanced supply as reflected by vacancy rates at a particular time. A healthy and sustainable Commercial Property market will be the consequence of responsible property development, and in high investor confidence in South Africa, and in property as a preferred investment by all stakeholders.

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