Strategy is always determined in the context of scenarios, or alternative memories of the future. Considering the scenario options for the Construction Industry in South Africa, the Strategic Forum agreed that the key Driving Forces of change (with the most potential impact) in the evolution of the Construction Industry are:
- the trends in Infrastructure Requirements (from Third World to First World Infrastructure);
- the trends in Infrastructure Investment (from no confidence and risk avoidance with Infrastructure Investment a fraction of requirement; to high confidence and risk taking with Infrastructure Investment exceeding requirements); and
- the trends in Infrastructure Delivery (from avoidance of Public Private Partnerships to preference for Public Private Partnerships ).
The scenario matrix has four end-states, which translates into a three-dimensional scenario space, with scenario pathways linking the four end-states dynamically, to create developmental (process) scenarios.
Investment trends in Construction are inextricably linked to general political and economic conditions, and in particular to the matching of Infrastructure Investment with the requirements of the developing economy. The willingness by all leading Stakeholders to take risks, and to work together in Public Private Partnerships, will result in Buoyant growth in the Construction Industry and the elimination of backlogs by 2010 under the Motorway Scenario.