Strategy is always determined in the context of scenarios, or alternative memories of the future. Considering the scenario options for the furniture Industry in South Africa, the Strategic Forum agreed that the key Driving Forces of change (High Impact, High Uncertainty factors in the environment) in the evolution of the Furniture Industry are:
- Trends in Discretionary Expenditure (from low propensity to spend to high propensity to spend);
- Trends in Consumer Confidence (from no confidence and expenditure avoidance, to high confidence and buoyant expenditure); and
- Trends in Social Mobility (Housing and Job mobility).
The scenario matrix has four end-states, which translate into a three-dimensional scenario space, with scenario pathways linking the four end-states dynamically, to create developmental (process) scenarios.
Trends in the furniture market are inextricably linked to TRENDS IN DISCRETIONARY EXPENDITURE, particularly related to the expenditure on furniture and home decoration; General CONSUMER CONFIDENCE , in the future of South Africa, and in the protection of property rights which determines the willingness to take risks and invest in property AND HOME BEAUTIFICATION; and to SOCIAL MOBILITY with changes in House and Job very often the trigger for redecoration and renewed expenditure on furniture.