Strategy is always determined in the context of scenarios, or alternative memories of the future. Considering the scenario options for the Building Industry in South Africa, the Strategic Forum agreed that the key Driving Forces of change (with the most potential impact) in the evolution of the Listed Property Sector are:
- the trends in Investment (from Property a poor investment to a preferred investment);
- trends in Investor Confidence (from no confidence and risk avoidance, to high confidence and risk taking); and
- trends in Property Delivery (by all the leading delivery Stakeholders).
The scenario matrix has four end-states, which translates into a three-dimensional scenario space, with scenario pathways linking the four end-states dynamically, to create developmental (process) scenarios.
Investment trends in Listed Property are inextricably linked to INVESTMENT TRENDS, particularly related to the perceived value of Property as an Asset Class as influenced by the rental yields that can be achieved and the capital growth in the value of property;
General INVESTOR CONFIDENCE, in the future of South Africa, the economy and in the protection of property rights which determines the willingness to take risks and invest in property; and to PROPERTY DELIVERY particularly related to the availability of suitable quality property in the right location for investment purposes.