SCENARIO

Scenarios For The Low Income Housing Market

Strategy is always determined in the context of scenarios, or alternative memories of the future. Considering the scenario options for Low Income Housing in South Africa, the Strategic Forum agreed that the key Driving Forces of change (High Impact, High Uncertainty factors in the environment) in the evolution of the LOW INCOME HOUSING MARKET (LIHM) Financing Industry are:

 

  • Trends in Affordability (from low ability to pay to high ability to pay, coupled with willingness to pay);
  • Trends in Consumer Confidence (from no confidence and risk avoidance, to high confidence and risk taking); and
  • Trends in Housing Delivery (Availability of appropriate affordable housing and financing products for the Low Income Housing Market).

 

The scenario matrix has four end-states, which translates into a three-dimensional scenario space, with scenario pathways linking the four end-states dynamically, to create developmental (process) scenarios.

Trends in the Low Income Housing Financing market are inextricably linked to TRENDS IN AFFORDABILITY, particularly related to the Ability and Willingness to Pay for Housing, and the availability and extent of Housing Subsidies to create affordability and appropriate financing to leverage the subsidy ammount; General CONSUMER CONFIDENCE , in the future of South Africa, and in the protection of property rights which determines the willingness to take risks and invest in home Ownership; and to HOUSING DELIVERY particularly related to the AVAILABILITY OF APPROPRIATE HOUSING AND FINANCING PRODUCTS and the WILLINGNESS of the Financial Institutions to take the risks associated with the market and to deliver cost effective financing solutions on a sustainable basis.

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