Strategy is always determined in the context of scenarios, or alternative memories of the future. Considering the scenario options for the Building Industry in South Africa, the Strategic Forum agreed that the key Driving Forces of change (with the most potential impact) in the evolution of the Refurbishment Market are:
- the trends in Property Values (from No to Low growth in values to High growth in values);
- the trends in Confidence of the Property Owner (from no confidence and refurbishment postponement, to high confidence and
- the trends in the Refurbishment Imperative, as reflected by proactive refurbishment, competitive forces, Cap rates and vacancy levels in the Commercial Sector, and the growth in Property values, Rentals and availability of Rental stock in the Residential Sector.
The scenario matrix has four end-states, which translates into a three-dimensional scenario space, with scenario pathways linking the four end-states dynamically, to create developmental (process) scenarios.
Investment trends in REFURBISHMENT are inextricably linked to PROPERTY VALUES, particularly related to the perceived value of Property Ownership; General CONFIDENCE of the Property Owner in the future of South Africa, and in the protection of property rights which determines the willingness to take risks and invest in Real Estate; and to the REFURBISHMENT IMPERATIVE with property regarded as an attractive asset class and a preferred investment.