SCENARIO

Scenarios For The World

Strategy is always determined in the context of scenarios, or alternative memories of the future. As stated by the Chief Scenario Planner of Royal Dutch Shell, Joseph Jaworski (1998 : 173) :
” – – – we the people in fact do create the future through our declarations, our actions, our way of being.” Considering the scenario options for the World, the Strategic Forum substantially agreed with the Royal Dutch Shell scenarios developed in the mid 1990’s by Jaworski and his group of remarkable people. According to these scenarios, two interrelated patterns, or key Driving Forces of change (with the most potential impact) characterised fundamental change around the World :

      • the trends in Liberalisation (both political and economic).
      • the trends in Globalisation;

 

One of the reasons liberalisation has spread so quickly and widely is globalisation. Liberalisation in turn speeds globalisation by opening and freeing flows of goods and knowledge. Globalisation and liberalisation are thus mutually reinforcing. This is an extremely potent and powerful driving force.

 

The Strategic Forum took the liberty to add a third force, i.e.

    • The reason is that developing world economies need to be integrated into the world economic system, but this has to benefit the emerging economies, not simply provide exclusive opportunities to the developed economies of the world.
    • the trends in Integration (by all the leading delivery Stakeholders).

 

The scenario matrix has four end-states, which translates into a three-dimensional scenario space, with scenario pathways linking the four end-states dynamically, to create developmental (process) scenarios.

 

By the end of the scenario period, 2020, the world is a very different place under the highroad New Frontiers scenario. Dramatic growth takes place in poor countries with new markets developing world-wide. Success continues to breed success, resulting in better education, lower birth-rates, and political reforms, with greater liberalisation supporting the drive towards democracy. Grandfather industries are moved to developing countries and the centre of gravity of the World economy moves south. Barriers to Trade are removed and/or liberalised, and the imbalances between Rich and Poor countries addressed. Manufacturing operations are set up in the emerging countries, technology is transferred, and self-sufficiency developed. *(Source : Based on Joseph Jaworski : Synchronicity.
The inner path of Leadership : 1998)

0